This article shows how mortality models that involve age effects can be fitted to ages beyond the sample range using projections of age effects as replacements for age effects that might not be in the sample. This ‘projected age effect’ approach allows insurers to use age-effect mortality models to obtain valuations of financial instruments such as annuities that depend on projections of extreme old age 𝑞 rates. Illustrative results suggest that the proposed approach provides a good approximation to both 𝑞 rates and term annuity prices. The practical import of this approach is to allow insurers to apply a much wider range of mortality models to such problems than would otherwise be possible.
Key Words
Age-Period-Cohort mortality model, age effect, projection, extreme old age, term annuity
